{"id":9055,"date":"2026-04-04T16:46:53","date_gmt":"2026-04-04T16:46:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/d.sheep-mine.ts.net\/?p=9055"},"modified":"2026-04-04T16:46:53","modified_gmt":"2026-04-04T16:46:53","slug":"130015172-cms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/d.sheep-mine.ts.net\/?p=9055","title":{"rendered":"Can the ‘3Gs’ disrupt BJP’s hold on Assam? How Congress is weaponising regional politics | India News – The Times of India"},"content":{"rendered":"


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As Assam heads into the April 9 assembly elections, the political contest in the state is increasingly being framed as a battle between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP<\/a>) and the \u2018three Gogois’.At one level, this is a straightforward electoral fight. The BJP, led by chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is seeking a third consecutive term in the state. <\/p>\n

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Watch<\/span><\/p>\n

Second Term For Himanta Or Surprise In Store? Political Analyst K Bharatram Decodes Assam Elections<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

On the other side is the opposition alliance led by the Congress<\/a>, bringing together regional and Left forces in an attempt to change the political dynamics of the state. <\/p>\n

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Behind the joint alliance lies a layered story shaped by personal rivalries, shifting loyalties and identity politics.At the heart of Assam\u2019s opposition are three leaders who happen to share a surname but follow very different political paths: Gaurav Gogoi of Congress, Akhil Gogoi of Raijor Dal and Lurinjyoti Gogoi of Assam Jatiya Parishad. While Gaurav rose through his family\u2019s political legacy, Akhil gained prominence via long-standing grassroots activism and Lurinjyoti emerged as a key figure during the anti-Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) movement.<\/p>\n

A contest framed as \u20183 Gs vs BJP\u2019<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

The BJP has been quick to weaponise this coincidence of surnames, turning it into a political narrative. Himanta has repeatedly clubbed the three leaders together, portraying them as a united front that represents interests opposed to the BJP\u2019s vision of Assam.In campaign speeches, Sarma has accused the trio of backing what he calls \u201cmiyas\u201d, a term used to refer to Bengali-origin Muslims. \u201cBe assured, the day BJP won\u2019t be in power, starting from capital Dispur, entire Assam will be taken over by miyas. If the three Gogois are doing politics under cover, we are doing works for people openly. We have people\u2019s blessings, and the opposition won\u2019t come in contest with us anyway in the election,\u201d he had said.Himanta has framed the election as a battle to protect Assamese identity. The message is clear: the BJP is positioning itself as the defender of demographic and cultural balance, while painting the opposition as aligned with forces that threaten it. <\/p>\n

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The opposition, however, rejects this framing, arguing it is a deliberate attempt to polarise voters and distract from governance issues. To counter the BJP, the three leaders have come together under a broader Congress-led coalition, the Asom Sonmilito Morcha (ASM).<\/p>\n

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Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The alliance, aimed at consolidating anti-BJP votes, includes Congress, Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad, CPI(M), CPI(ML) Liberation and the All Party Hill Leaders Conference.\u201cWe felt it was time to take our views together to the public. Hence, we will launch the joint campaign from now on,\u201d Gaurav said while announcing the alliance. Lurinjyoti on his party\u2019s alliance with the Congress said, \u201cWe have joined hands to send a clear message to the people that we are united in our journey to oust the communal BJP. Our united journey has started.\u201d In Assam\u2019s 126-member assembly, the BJP currently holds 64 MLAs, with allies AGP (9), UPPL (7), and BPF (3), while Congress has 26 MLAs, AIUDF 15, CPM one and Independent one.Yet, despite the BJP\u2019s attempt to club them together, the three Gogois are not a monolithic bloc. Each represents a distinct political constituency, ideological position and strategy.<\/p>\n

Gaurav Gogoi vs Himanta Biswa Sarma: A rivalry rooted in the past<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

At the centre of Assam\u2019s 2026 assembly elections lies the increasingly bitter face-off between Gaurav Gogoi and Himanta Biswa Sarma.The latest flashpoint came when Sarma alleged that Gogoi had links with Pakistan, claiming that the Congress leader had made a \u2018confidential visit\u2019 to the Islamic nation in 2013 and raising questions about his activities there. He even suggested that Gogoi could face serious charges if he failed to explain the trip. \u201cIf Gogoi cannot come out clean on his Pakistan stay, then charges of \u2018rashtra-droh\u2019 (treason) will have to be imposed on him,\u201d Sarma alleged. <\/p>\n

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Gogoi dismissed the allegations as mindless and bogus, accusing the chief minister of embarrassing himself and engaging in political theatrics. \u201cNobody in Assam is taking his words seriously. #SuperFlop. He should rather explain how his family managed to acquire 12,000 bighas or 4000 acres of prime property across Assam,\u201d Gaurav jibed. This war of words is not an isolated incident. It is the latest chapter in a rivalry that dates back to their days in Congress.Sarma was once one of the most influential leaders in the Congress government led by former chief minister Tarun Gogoi<\/a>, Gaurav\u2019s father. However, tensions began to surface when Gaurav started playing a more active role in the party\u2019s affairs. Sarma, who had ambitions of becoming chief minister, felt sidelined.The breaking point came ahead of the 2016 assembly elections, when the Congress leadership appeared to favour Gaurav Gogoi as a future face of the party. Sarma left the Congress in 2015 and joined the BJP, taking several MLAs with him, a move that significantly weakened the Congress and paved the way for the BJP\u2019s rise in Assam.Reflecting on his departure from Congress, Sarma said, \u201cMadam (Sonia Gandhi) had asked me to decide on the date and I had told her that I would take oath the day after the Ambubachi Mela at Kamakhya Temple in June (2014). The situation changed after Rahul Gandhi made the calls.\u201dSince then, the Sarma-Gogoi rivalry has only intensified marked by another famous \u2018biscuit episode\u2019.In 2017, Sarma explained how Rahul Gandhi had offered him a biscuit after feeding it to his dog, remarking, \u201cNot only Rahul Gandhi but the entire family could not make me eat that biscuit. I am a proud Assamese and Indian. I refused to eat and resigned from the Congress.\u201dWhat began as an internal power struggle within the Congress has now evolved into one of the most high-stakes political confrontations in the state.<\/p>\n

Akhil Gogoi: The agitator turned challenger<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

Akhil Gogoi, the founder of Raijor Dal, brings a distinctly activist energy to Assam\u2019s opposition camp.An activist-turned-politician, Akhil Gogoi rose to prominence through his grassroots movements against corruption and land rights issues. His opposition to the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) made him a central figure in the protests that swept Assam, particularly in Upper Assam. <\/p>\n

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He has also campaigned against BJP stalwart Sarbanand Sonowal in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections but lost. Now leading the Raijor Dal, he has positioned himself as a voice of regional assertion and anti-establishment politics. He won the Sivasagar seat in 2021, even while remaining in jail due to protests. Akhil has repeatedly criticised the BJP, accusing the party of neglecting regional issues and polarising communities. Ahead of the 2026 elections, Raijor Dal withdrew candidates from several constituencies to avoid splitting votes against the BJP. His party is fielding candidates in 16 constituencies. <\/p>\n

Lurinjyoti Gogoi: Regional identity and the AJP experiment<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

Lurinjyoti Gogoi, president of the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), represents yet another strand of Assam\u2019s opposition politics, one centred on regional identity and the legacy of the anti-CAA movement.The AJP was formed in the aftermath of the protests, seeking to translate the sentiment of Assamese nationalism into an electoral force. While the party has struggled to achieve major electoral success so far, it continues to have influence in pockets of Upper Assam. <\/p>\n

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For the 2026 assembly elections, the AJP is contesting 10 seats. Lurinjyoti Gogoi\u2019s challenge lies in expanding this base and converting ideological support into votes. His contest in constituencies like Khowang is being closely watched as a test of whether regional parties can still carve out space in a political landscape increasingly dominated by national players.<\/p>\n

Upper Assam: The heart of the battle<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

If there is one region where this three-cornered dynamic becomes most visible, it is Upper Assam.This belt, which includes districts like Jorhat, Sivasagar and Dibrugarh, is not only politically significant but also symbolically important. It is home to the Ahom community, tea garden workers and has a strong sense of regional identity.For the BJP, retaining its hold over Upper Assam is essential to securing a third term. For the opposition, making inroads here is key to mounting a credible challenge.What makes this contest unique is that all three Gogois have influence in this region.This has created the narrative of \u2018Gogoi vs Gogoi\u2019, where Himanta Biswa Sarma positions himself against the trio, framing it as a battle between the ruling BJP and a united opposition front. <\/p>\n

BJP\u2019s strategy: Identity, development and dominance<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

The BJP\u2019s campaign in Assam continues to rely on a combination of development promises and identity politics.On the one hand, the party highlights infrastructure projects, welfare schemes and governance achievements under both the state and central governments. On the other hand, it has sharpened its rhetoric around issues such as illegal immigration, demographic change and cultural preservation.Sarma has been particularly vocal in warning that a Congress-led government would lead to a loss of control over the state\u2019s demographic balance.At the same time, the BJP appears confident about its electoral prospects. Sarma has dismissed the opposition alliance as ineffective, claiming that BJP workers are active on the ground while opposition leaders are confined to meetings.<\/p>\n

Opposition unity: Strength or fragility?<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

The formation of an opposition alliance marks a significant development in Assam\u2019s political landscape.Bringing together the Congress, Raijor Dal, AJP and Left parties, the alliance seeks to avoid vote division and present a consolidated challenge to the BJP. However, such coalitions are not without challenges.Seat-sharing negotiations, ideological differences and leadership questions continue to pose potential risks. The success of the alliance will depend not just on arithmetic but also on its ability to maintain unity and coherence throughout the campaign.<\/p>\n

The data behind the politics<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

Beyond the rhetoric and alliances, data from the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) provides important insights into the nature of the contest.An analysis of 722 candidates shows that 14% have declared criminal cases, with 11% facing serious charges. Among major parties, 9% of BJP candidates have criminal cases, compared to 28% in the Congress and 37% in the AIUDF. <\/p>\n

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The data also highlights the growing role of money in elections. Nearly 39% of candidates are crorepatis, with average assets per candidate standing at Rs 3.25 crore.Perhaps most striking is the increase in wealth among re-contesting MLAs. Their average assets have risen from Rs 4.17 crore in 2021 to Rs 7.52 crore in 2026, an 80% jump over five years.<\/p>\n

What this election is really about<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

As campaigning intensifies, the Assam elections of 2026 are paving the way for two major possibilities. For the BJP, the stakes are clear: securing a third term and demonstrating that its dominance in the state is not dependent on allies.For the opposition, the election is a test of whether unity can translate into electoral success and whether leaders like Gaurav Gogoi, Akhil Gogoi and Lurinjyoti Gogoi can together challenge the BJP\u2019s narrative.At a deeper level, the contest reflects competing visions of Assam\u2019s future: one centred on strong centralised leadership and identity politics and the other on regional assertion and coalition-building.What is certain is that the battle between the BJP and the \u2018three Gogois\u2019 has added a new dimension to Assam\u2019s political landscape.As the state heads to the polls, the question is no longer just who will win, but what kind of politics will define Assam in the years to come.<\/div>\n\n

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